Why did the ‘Bayesian’ sink so quickly? A ZDF documentary reconstructs the disaster

ZDF has, in a 45-minute documentary reconstructs how the 56-metre-long superyacht ‘Bayesian’ sank off the coast of Sicily in August 2024. Seven people lost their lives in the accident, whilst 15 were rescued. For BOOTE readers, the case is relevant not only because of the yacht’s size, but also because of the questions familiar to many skippers: how do strong winds develop whilst at anchor, which hatches must be closed in good time, and how quickly can a routine situation turn into an emergency?

ZDF reconstructs the night before Sicily

The authors frequently use the subjunctive in their reconstruction. This is hardly surprising. The parties involved have filed lawsuits against one another worth millions, and other journalists have also been sued for alleged false claims. The reconstruction of events to date is based primarily on the laws of physics and simulations. There is as yet no official final report, and legal proceedings are ongoing.

The report does not replace a final report. The UK Marine Accident Investigation Branch had already published an interim report examining the yacht’s stability, the weather and the effect of the wind. The Italian investigations are continuing in parallel, which is why many details must still be phrased with caution.

According to the documentary’s makers, the parties involved were given the opportunity to comment on the details of the reconstruction. Lawyers reportedly declined to do so.

​Click here to go straight to the documentary in the ZDF media library...

​What makes the documentary so powerful, and where questions remain

Essentially, the documentary reflects the current state of knowledge, which has also been published by YACHT and summarised further down in this article. Nevertheless, it is well worth watching. It provides a meticulously crafted and dramatically told reconstruction of that night of horror.

The only point of criticism is that the question in the subtitle of the documentary – ‘Why do ships sink?’ – is not answered in a remotely satisfactory manner. The other shipping accidents cited have little or no connection to the events on the ‘Bayesian’. On this point, the filmmakers have set their sights too high.

​​How the rig became a windbreak despite the sails having been stowed away

Of particular interest is a model created by Spanish naval architects and shipbuilding engineers, which is featured in the documentary. According to this, the rigging, stays and pairs of spreaders could have generated considerable wind resistance during severe heel. Although no sails were set, the ‘Bayesian’ would therefore have presented a large surface area to the wind.

​For motorboat owners, this point applies to some extent, even though a motorboat does not have a rig. Large superstructures, flybridges, hardtops, tarpaulins, equipment racks or high gunwales can also present a significant target area during thunderstorm gusts. Anyone at anchor should therefore check the weather forecast, the wind circle and the anchor alarm before the gusts actually hit the boat. BOOTE explains this in more detail in its guide. Thunderstorms on a boat: What to do if there is a risk of lightning.

Ventilation systems, engine rooms and the water’s path

Also of interest are the Spanish simulations shown in the documentary regarding the yacht taking on water. If, as is suspected, the ventilation openings had not been closed, the yacht would have started taking on water as early as a 35-degree list (galley ventilation). If, as is also suspected, the crew were preparing to drop anchor, the ventilation hatches for the engines would have had to have been open for that purpose.

According to the modelling shown in the documentary, certain ventilation openings could have allowed water to enter early on in the event of severe weather. Open ventilation openings in the engine room would therefore have been particularly critical. Whether these openings were in fact open, how much water entered and by what route, and whether this points to any negligence, is the subject of ongoing investigations and proceedings.

​This case illustrates why seemingly simple items on the safety checklist can be crucial: monitoring the weather, checking the anchor’s position, inspecting hatches and openings, planning for engine readiness, and deciding early on whether an anchorage is still safe. The basics on these points can be found in the BOOTE guide Everything you need to know about anchoring.

Seven people lost their lives in the accident. Their bodies were recovered one by one by divers several days later. The documentary’s makers do not comment on the circumstances in which they were found – which gave rise to much speculation, for example as to which cabins they were in and what condition they were in.

​A chronology of the ‘Bayesian’ downfall

BOOTE first reported on the sinking of the ‘Bayesian’ on 20 August 2024 The 56-metre-long superyacht was anchored off Porticello on the north coast of Sicily during the night of 18–19 August 2024 when it was caught in a violent storm and sank within a few minutes. There were 22 people on board. Fifteen were rescued, whilst seven lost their lives. In our first report "Tech billionaire’s 56-metre yacht sinks after being hit by a waterspout off Sicily" Initially, the focus was on the dramatic search for missing persons.

The “Sir Robert Baden Powell”, which was anchored nearby, played an important role right from the start. We described how Captain Karsten Börner and his crew spotted a liferaft after the accident and took survivors on board. In the first few hours and days following the accident, discussions focused primarily on a waterspout, extreme gusts, open hatches, the tall mast and the position of the keel as possible contributing factors.

On 22 August 2024 we reported that Mike Lynch, the owner of ‘Bayesian’, had been recovered from the wreckage, dead. By this point, several missing persons had already been found, but the search for Lynch’s daughter Hannah was still ongoing. At the same time, the technical questions were becoming more pressing: Why was a modern, large superyacht able to sink so quickly? What role did windage, stability, flooding pathways and the lift keel play?

In the March 2025 the focus was on the planned recovery operation. The The salvage of the ‘Bayesian’ was scheduled for 20 April 2025. At that point, the wreck had been lying at a depth of around 50 metres off the coast of Sicily for months. Investigators and experts hoped that raising the wreck would provide crucial clues as to the position of the keel, possible points of water ingress and the actual condition of the ship following the capsizing.

The recovery operation proved technically difficult and was overshadowed by another fatality. On 12 May 2025 we reported that a Dutch diver had died whilst working on the wreck. The cause of this accident was initially unclear. At the same time, it became clear just how complex the operation was: the area was secured, the wreck prepared, the mast was to be cut away and the hull was to be lifted later using a floating crane.

On 16 May 2025 we assessed the the initial investigation report by the British Marine Accident Investigation Branch in detail. The interim report reconstructed the events of the fateful night much more accurately than the initial reports. According to the report, the “Bayesian” heeled over extremely sharply to starboard within a matter of seconds during a violent gust; the generators failed, and water poured into the vessel over the starboard rail and through the stairwells. At around 4.45 am, the yacht sank.

The stability issues were particularly contentious. Our analysis of the interim report also covered modelling of the effect of direct crosswinds on the yacht. According to this, under certain conditions, the ‘Bayesian’ could end up in a position from which it could no longer right itself. However, the report was explicitly an interim report. The investigation of the wreck was expected to yield further insights.

On 23 June 2025 This was followed by a decisive step: the ‘Bayesian’ was raised from a depth of around 50 metres. The crane vessel ‘Hebo Lift 10’ brought the hull to the surface; the wreck was then to be stabilised and taken to Termini Imerese. This enabled British and Italian experts to continue their investigation of the salvaged vessel.

Two days later, we asked what might become of the yacht following its salvage and the subsequent investigation. In our article "Is there a chance of snapping up a superyacht at a bargain price?" The focus was on the technical condition of the vessel after months underwater, possible corrosion damage and the question of whether it would even be economically viable to repair such a wreck. One thing was clear: as long as the ‘Bayesian’ remains evidence, the forensic investigation takes precedence.

On 30 June 2025 we showed First images from inside the wreck. The images revealed a badly damaged interior, covered in mud and sediment. The saloon, passageways and engine room were significantly damaged. The images showed the damage caused by ten months on the seabed, but did not yet answer the key question of how the ship had originally taken on water.

In the May 2026 moved new findings by the Italian public prosecutor’s office took centre stage. A meteorological report therefore assessed the weather event differently from the initial portrayal of it as an uncontrollable natural disaster. According to this assessment, greater focus was placed on the crew’s decisions, the position of the anchor, their response to the weather and technical preparations.

In the July 2026 We summarised the current status of the proceedings once again. This was prompted by the debate, reignited by a BBC documentary, concerning the A dispute worth millions over design faults or crew error. On the one hand, there are questions regarding stability, the stability manual and the ship’s design. On the other hand, Italian investigators are looking into possible failings on board. A final investigation report has still not been published.

This timeline illustrates why the ‘Bayesian’ case remains unresolved to this day. What began as a seemingly baffling accident has evolved into a complex interplay of weather, stability, technology, operational factors, salvage and legal proceedings. For skippers, the case remains particularly relevant because it demonstrates just how quickly an anchorage can turn into a life-threatening environment in strong winds.

What did you think of the ZDF documentary? Have your say in the comments.